Exit Polls Look Bad for Hillary

Hillary can't win the nomination with numbers like these. Wisconsin is a state that she should be able to win, but Obama is just the better candidate. He beats her 2 to 1 with men, and basically ties her (51% to 48%) among women. She needs to be getting a lot more of the female vote if she is going to get back in this race. CNN hasn't called Wisconsin yet, and perhaps these exit poll numbers are off a bit, but what has seemed clear in the last couple of weeks is that Obama has been able to make in roads into Hillary's base while maintaining and even strengthening support within his own. That's a pretty clear recipe for winning the nomination if that trend continues.

Every candidate needs a base of support, a coalition in order to win. What has been so amazing about this race so far is that Obama and Clinton's constituencies are of approximately equal size. Obama has African Americans, upper middle class whites, and men. Hillary has Hispanics, working class whites, and women. But if he's splitting women with her, it's over Johnny.