Change v. More of the Same
America is looking for change right now, that's clear when one looks at almost any poll on any issue. As Obama v. McCain seems to be the most likely choice for the general election, it is interesting to ponder this issue of change because while Obama has marketed himself as the change candidate, McCain would seem to lay claim, at least in part, to that same title. McCain has always been a maverick. In 2000 he ran a very anti-establishment campaign based in large part on his bona fides as a straightalker, someone willing to say what made the most sense for the country and not just the most political sense for his party.
But ever since that campaign McCain has hewed more to the traditional line of the Republican party. After initially voting against the Bush tax cuts, he's now for them. After initially denouncing Jerry Falwell and his screed spewing brethren of the religious right, McCain visited Falwell's university to give a high profile speech showing his support for religious conservatives. McCain has been siding more and more with President Bush these days, most prominently on the "Surge" strategy in Iraq. Democrats have already said that they will brand the McCain presidency as essentially a continuation of the Bush years. If this mantel sticks it will be nearly impossible for McCain to win because whatever reservations the public has about Obama's experience Americans seem in this election to be far more worried about the essential question of what the next president will bring them: change, or more of the same?
The majority of American's want at least the beginnings of a withdrawal from Iraq, they want universal healthcare, they want education reform, they want to keep social security as is. On everyone of these issues McCain is in the minority. The American public certainly acknowledges his experience and expertise, but this is a democracy and the people want their government to serve their interests. He can run all the red phone ads he wants, he can trumpet on the highest heights his exemplary record of service to his country, but if he can't promise the American people anything new he won't stand a chance in the fall.
George W. Bush is certainly one of the least popular president's in American history. Nixon didn't even incite this level of personal animus. The hatred that democratic true-believers hold toward their 43rd president will be turned into a massive outpouring of support for Obama in the fall. They have to have this election. The 50 million dollars that Obama raised in February will look like chump-change by November. McCain meanwhile had his best fund-raising month ever and he only netted 12 million. What does this all mean? It means the democrats have the momentum, the passion and the excitement all on their side. When the public wants change can McCain really expect them to turn to the seventy year old who promises little in the way of new ideas? McCain is essentially running the we live in a dangerous world campaign, vote for the experienced old soldier to lead you through it.
But as the calender has turned to 2008 Americans have turned their gaze ever inward to the problems at home. They are weary of the War in Iraq and are facing what could be the beginnings of a stagflationary recession. 47 million Americans are without health insurance, 1 in 100 American adults is now in prison, the environment is in an increasingly perilous state, and this country continues to fall behind the rest of the world in terms of education and infrastructure, suggesting rough days ahead.
This would not be the first time that Ameica has looked to its young leaders in a time of crisis. Jefferson was 33 when he wrote the Declaration of Independence. Martin Luther King, Jr. was only in his 30s during the Civil Rights Movement, and Lincoln was only in his 40s when he worked to heal a nation torn apart by war. Obama would be 47 when he assumed office.
It's not just about change. I believe that Obama is a man of incredible talent. His life experiences have lent him a depth of understanding of both national and international issues that I view as potentially invaluable in helping him to repair the damage done by the present president. This is however a country of, by and for the people, and what they want generally goes. They want change in 2008. It's going to be hard for McCain to fight that.
But ever since that campaign McCain has hewed more to the traditional line of the Republican party. After initially voting against the Bush tax cuts, he's now for them. After initially denouncing Jerry Falwell and his screed spewing brethren of the religious right, McCain visited Falwell's university to give a high profile speech showing his support for religious conservatives. McCain has been siding more and more with President Bush these days, most prominently on the "Surge" strategy in Iraq. Democrats have already said that they will brand the McCain presidency as essentially a continuation of the Bush years. If this mantel sticks it will be nearly impossible for McCain to win because whatever reservations the public has about Obama's experience Americans seem in this election to be far more worried about the essential question of what the next president will bring them: change, or more of the same?
The majority of American's want at least the beginnings of a withdrawal from Iraq, they want universal healthcare, they want education reform, they want to keep social security as is. On everyone of these issues McCain is in the minority. The American public certainly acknowledges his experience and expertise, but this is a democracy and the people want their government to serve their interests. He can run all the red phone ads he wants, he can trumpet on the highest heights his exemplary record of service to his country, but if he can't promise the American people anything new he won't stand a chance in the fall.
George W. Bush is certainly one of the least popular president's in American history. Nixon didn't even incite this level of personal animus. The hatred that democratic true-believers hold toward their 43rd president will be turned into a massive outpouring of support for Obama in the fall. They have to have this election. The 50 million dollars that Obama raised in February will look like chump-change by November. McCain meanwhile had his best fund-raising month ever and he only netted 12 million. What does this all mean? It means the democrats have the momentum, the passion and the excitement all on their side. When the public wants change can McCain really expect them to turn to the seventy year old who promises little in the way of new ideas? McCain is essentially running the we live in a dangerous world campaign, vote for the experienced old soldier to lead you through it.
But as the calender has turned to 2008 Americans have turned their gaze ever inward to the problems at home. They are weary of the War in Iraq and are facing what could be the beginnings of a stagflationary recession. 47 million Americans are without health insurance, 1 in 100 American adults is now in prison, the environment is in an increasingly perilous state, and this country continues to fall behind the rest of the world in terms of education and infrastructure, suggesting rough days ahead.
This would not be the first time that Ameica has looked to its young leaders in a time of crisis. Jefferson was 33 when he wrote the Declaration of Independence. Martin Luther King, Jr. was only in his 30s during the Civil Rights Movement, and Lincoln was only in his 40s when he worked to heal a nation torn apart by war. Obama would be 47 when he assumed office.
It's not just about change. I believe that Obama is a man of incredible talent. His life experiences have lent him a depth of understanding of both national and international issues that I view as potentially invaluable in helping him to repair the damage done by the present president. This is however a country of, by and for the people, and what they want generally goes. They want change in 2008. It's going to be hard for McCain to fight that.
posted by Tbone at
3:26 PM
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